Saturday, August 19, 2017

Awareness and Acceptance in Trading

Two of the most powerful psychological assets in trading are awareness and acceptance. Let's look into those.

Awareness means that we consciously direct attention to something.  We become a keen observer; we focus our attention.  Self-awareness means that we direct our attention inward and observe ourselves. Market awareness means that we step back from moment to moment price action and observe something about the market.  We most effectively act on something if we sustain awareness of it.

As Branden's quote suggests, however, awareness means little if it is not accompanied by acceptance. In a state of acceptance, we are open minded; we readily process what we observe.  When we lack acceptance, our awareness cannot become insight.  We shut off our awareness when we fight against it.  Acceptance means that, sometimes, we have to process information that is uncomfortable.

The trader who lacks awareness is clueless.  The trader who is aware but who lacks acceptance is defensive.  This is a very important principle.  When we find ourselves becoming tense or frustrated in trading, it is often because we are aware of something we have difficulty accepting.  Whatever that something is, is usually important.

Yesterday I was trading long in the market early in the day and doing well.  I then did my usual thing, waited for a qualified pullback and bought.  The market ticked higher, stalled, and then went to a lower low on increased selling pressure and volume.  My awareness said, "This shouldn't be happening."  My acceptance said, "This is the wrong trade."  I exited for a small loss.

Then, however, a second level of acceptance kicked in.  I said to myself, "A good trade that fails can be a signal in the opposite direction."  In other words, if flows truly had shifted in the market, we should not look back and surpass the highs that preceded my qualified pullback.  That acceptance of a change in market flows/direction allowed me to sell the next bounce and, indeed, continue to trade the short side in the afternoon.  That made for a good day of trading, but it was only because I could truly accept the information the market was providing.

Earlier in the week, I was locked into a view that we would move higher in the market and failed to accept the same exact information.  That not only led to losing trades, but the failure to capitalize on potential winning ones.  Interestingly, my lack of acceptance interfered with even my awareness.  A closed mind cannot accept, but it also is hampered in processing what is in front of us.

It is not enough to try to eliminate negative emotions in trading.  Many of those emotions, from uneasiness and nervousness to frustration and discouragement, reflect an awareness that we are having trouble accepting.  Losses and missed opportunities are less threatening when we view them as tools for expanding our awareness and gaining new perspectives.  As in my case, the losing trade was the catalyst for winning--but only because of awareness and acceptance.

Further Reading:  The Power of Self-Awareness in Trading


Saturday, August 12, 2017

Capturing Value and Momentum in the Stock Market

In mid-2014 I hit upon an idea for analyzing the strength and weakness of the overall stock market. Suppose we took every stock in the New York Stock Exchange and assessed whether it gave a buy signal, a neutral signal, or a sell signal for a standard technical indicator, such as Bollinger Bands. Such a measure would capture the breadth of strength and weakness for stocks as a whole, not just for the index itself.  Would this be a useful measure?  It turns out that the measure was indeed useful and I began collecting the data daily from the Stock Charts website.

Then I hit upon another idea.  The signals from cumulated stock performance on one indicator (such as Bollinger Bands) were different from the signals from other indicators (such as RSI and Parabolic SAR).  Might it be useful to create an indicator of indicators? This would show occasions when we have strength and weakness across all stocks *and* all indicators.  

The resulting cumulative indicator measure is charted above from 2016 forward (indicator in red; SPY in blue).  Even within the considerable uptrend we've had over that period in SPY, we've seen relative periods of overbought and oversold in the measure.  Note that we currently stand at a significantly oversold level.

Going back to June of 2014, when I first began accumulating these data, next ten day returns in SPY have averaged +.01% when we have been in the top half of the distribution for the cumulative measure.  When we have been in the bottom half of the measure, next ten day returns in SPY have averaged +.63%.  This is a significant value effect.  Returns have been significantly better over a swing period when we've been oversold than when we've been overbought.  If we break down returns by quartiles, the upside returns are even more striking in the weakest (most oversold) quartile, which is where we stand now. Interestingly, when the indicators have been simultaneously strong, we've seen superior upside returns over the same ten day horizon.  

In other words, the cumulative measure is capturing both a value effect (buy when things have gotten weak) and a momentum effect (buy when there is a broad thrust higher). Returns have been subnormal if we are not broadly weak or broadly strong.

This is a nice illustration of the value of "big data" and especially the value of well-conceived unique data sets.  As a discretionary trader, I find it crucial to be quantitatively informed.  I observe that integration of discretionary and quantitative among the great majority of the successful traders and portfolio managers I work with.  Even for longer time frame active investors, timing market entries and exits with shorter-term measures that capture value and momentum can meaningfully enhance returns.


Monday, August 07, 2017

What I've Learned From My Trading Setbacks

During the summer months, I have made a concerted effort to work on my trading.  My year to date results had been well below my average returns and indeed had turned negative for the first time in recent memory.  I took that as a worthy challenge and engaged in a detailed review of what was working and what wasn't working in my trading.  I'm pleased to say that the results of this work have been quite positive, not only turning the P/L around but also instilling both a consistency of process and a consistency of results.  Below I share a few of the things I have learned in my trading that might be of help to other traders who are adapting to challenging, low volatility markets:

1)  Think in Cycles - This has been one of the two greatest changes I've made in my trading.  I stopped thinking about trends and ranges entirely, I don't focus on chart patterns, and I don't pretend to know what the "big players" are doing apart from noting volume patterns.  Instead, I am identifying dominant cycles in the market at short, medium, and longer time frame and focusing on how those cycles interact with one another.  I am focusing on cycles of volatility in the market, as well as cyclical price action.  This has been a much more effective way to participate in directional market behavior, especially when implemented in event time. The cycle framework has naturally made me more flexible as a trader:  at certain junctures in a cycle, I am a "trend" trader, following the momentum that occurs when cycles line up.  At other cycle junctures, I am a "mean reversion" trader, adjusting to the "choppiness" that occurs when cycles are not aligned.  Most of all, I've become better at focusing on dominant cycles and the ways in which volatility regimes shift the cycles that dominate.

2)  Focus on Execution - A side benefit of the cycle framework is that it allows for simultaneous tracking of short term and longer term cycles.  The short term cycles become extremely useful in entry and exit execution, allowing the trader to extract more from each trade.  I find that the difference between good entries and exits and poor ones in low volatility markets is an important component of making and losing money.  I might be trading a longer term cycle, but I will use a short term cycle to get in near a trough and exit near a peak.  This is a bit counterintuitive, as you're buying when things look worst and selling when they've been recently strong.  By giving execution a short volatility bias, it's helped me participate in directional moves that do occur.

3)  Focus on Trading Spirituality, Not Just Trading Psychology - This is subtle and is a topic not everyone is comfortable with.  Trading just doesn't work when it is *me* focused.  Me making money, me losing, me becoming successful, me working on my state of mind, etc.  Once the ego is the focus, we lose flexibility and perspective.  I of all people should know that: as a psychologist, if therapy ever becomes about me, I lose my effectiveness.  The skill of a therapist is in listening, understanding, and responding to another person.  If I'm concerned about my income, my reputation, or my feelings about the other person, I lose my focus and my impact.  In the past months, I've regrounded myself in my religion and made spiritual readings a daily part of my morning routine. The change in perspective has been dramatic. A turning point occurred when my research yielded a very good trade opportunity.  I didn't feel excitement, conviction, greed, or any of those things.  I felt grateful.  It's a big change.

I'll be doing a free online workshop this week and will be happy to amplify these ideas.  Setbacks occur for a reason; they point the way to new directions we need to take.  I hope you always have setbacks in your trading and I hope they always make you a better trader--and a better person.

Friday, August 04, 2017

Free Group Coaching on August 9th

I've recently found group coaching sessions to be highly productive.  When a group meets with me for coaching, we can discuss the common challenges members are facing and each person can learn from the experience of others.  In recent sessions, I've outlined specific psychological and trading approaches that address those challenges, so that group members can take away concrete goals and directions for improving their trading.

I'm pleased that is hosting a free group coaching session with me at 4:30 PM on Wednesday, August 9th.  The extended "ask me anything" format means that this will *not* be a lecture-style presentation.  Rather, attendees will be part of a group that interacts for group coaching. Participants can ask questions about their personal lives, their trading approaches, psychological challenges they face in trading, how to join trading firms, and much more.

Here is the link for registration for the event.  Space in the room is limited, so please sign up early.  And start thinking about the best questions you have regarding trading psychology.  It's a great opportunity to learn from each other's experience!

Thanks as always for the interest--